アメリカ発金融危機≠世界同時不況

●Jeffrey D. Sachs, “Boom, Bust, and Recovery in the World Economy”（Project Syndicate, 2008）

But, whatever the pain felt in the deregulated Anglo-Saxon-style economies, none of this must inevitably cause a global calamity. I do not see any reason for a global depression, or even a global recession. Yes, the US will experience a decline in income and a sharp rise in unemployment, lowering the rest of the world’s exports to the US. But many other parts of the world that still grow. Many large economies, including China, Germany, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, have very large export surpluses, and so have been lending to the rest of the world (especially to the US) rather than borrowing.

These countries are flush with cash, and are not burdened by the collapse of a housing bubble. Although their households have suffered to some extent from the fall in equity prices, they not only can continue to grow, but they can also increase their internal demand to offset the decline in exports to the US. They should now cut taxes, ease domestic credit conditions, and increase government investments in roads, power, and public housing. They have enough foreign-exchange reserves to avoid the risk of financial instability from increasing their domestic spending, as long as they do it prudently.

今般の金融危機を契機として世界的な不況が到来するという必然性はない（アメリカ経済に関しては一時的な不況が到来する可能性は高いだろうけれども）。賢明な*1政策対応によって金融危機の悪影響（特にアメリカ経済の輸入需要の落ち込み）から逃れることは十分に可能であるし、またそのために採りうる政策オプションの余地も大きいと考えられるからである。

*1:といっても当たり前のことを粛々と実行すればいいだけだけれども。