銀メダリストと銅メダリスト、どっちが嬉しそう？
今旬なオリンピックの話題関連で。
銀メダリストと銅メダリスト、どっちがメダルとって満足げ（あるいは悔しげ）だろうか？
普通に考えれば、銀メダリストの方が成績が上なんだから銀メダリストの方が結果に満足しているに決まってる、・・・はずだけど。
●Dan Ariely, “Silver, Bronze & Regret”（Predictably irrational, August 21, 2008）
What did they find? bronze-medal winners looked nearly as happy as the winners of the gold medal, whereas the expressions of the silver medalists more closely resembled the athletes who placed fifth.
Silver medalists at the Olympics seem to perform what we call an upward comparison — they compare themselves against someone better off than them. Bronze medalists seem to perform downward comparison — they tend to compare themselves with people who did worse
● Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey and Thomas Gilovich（1995）, “When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction Among Olympic Medalists（pdf）”（Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, vol.69(4), pp.603-610）
Research on counterfactual thinking has shown that people's emotional responses to events are influenced by their thoughts about "what might have been." The authors extend these findings by documenting a familiar occasion in which those who are objectively better off nonetheless feel worse. In particular, an analysis of the emotional reactions of bronze and silver medalists at the 1992 Summer Olympics—both at the conclusion of their events and on the medal stand—indicates that bronze medalists tend to be happier than silver medalists. The authors attribute these results to the fact that the most compelling counterfactual alternative for the silver medalist is winning the gold, whereas for the bronze medalist it is finishing without a medal. Support for this interpretation was obtained from the 1992 Olympics and the 1994 Empire State Games. The discussion focuses on the implications of endowment and contrast for well being.
We are not suggesting, of course, that finishing second or coming close to a cherished outcome always leads to less satisfaction than a slightly more modest performance. Finishing second is truly a mixed blessing. Performing that well provides a number of direct benefits that increase our well being—recognition from others, boosts to self-esteem, and so on. At the same time, it can indirectly lower satisfaction by the unfortunate contrast with what might have been. Thus, the inconsistent effect of finishing second is analogous to the "endowment" and "contrast" polarity that Tversky and Griffin (1991) claimed affects the hedonic significance of all experienced events. According to their analysis, any experience has a direct effect on well-being by what it brings to one's endowment—that is, the pleasure or pain derived from the event itself. But a person's experiences also have an indirect effect on well being by altering the adaptation level against which future experiences are contrasted. Their contrast (in which the event itself establishes a new standard against which future events are compared) is different than the one at work here (in which the events' proximity to a better outcome causes one to lose sight of what is and focus on what might have been). The core idea is the same, however. In both cases, the direct effect of the event itself is offset by a comparison process with the opposite effect, be it a comparison of future outcomes to the present, or the present outcome to a counterfactual alternative that was almost attained.
試合直後ならびに表彰式での表情から判断するに銅メダリストの方が銀メダリストよりも満足げ。
なぜ？
・銀メダリストと銅メダリストとのcomparisonの仕方の違いにある（Dan Ariely）*1。
・銀メダリストと銅メダリストとのCounterfactual Thinkingの違いにある（Medvec他）*2。
・星野JAPANにはがっかりだ（hicksian）*3。
あなたはどの意見に賛同する？
（追記）
ArielyとMedvec他との議論はまったく違う議論というわけでもないな。いや、まったく同じ議論だ（Medvec他, pp.604参照）。Counterfactual Thinkingに違いがあるからこそcomparisonの仕方に違いが生まれる、と考えれば。というか、Counterfactual Thinkingの違い≒comparisonの仕方の違い、としても間違いではないだろう。
（追々記）個々人の満足度は3種類のrelativityに依存する（Medvec他, pp.603参照）。
①自分の結果（状況）と他者の結果（状況）との差（例.他者との所得差）
people's satisfaction with their objective circumstances is greatly affected by how their own circumstances compare with those of relevant others.
②実際の結果と事前に期待した結果との差
satisfaction with an outcome likewise depends on how it compares with a person's original expectations.
③実際の結果と反実仮想的な（counterfactual）結果との差
people seem to be greatly affected by how their objective outcomes compare to imagined outcomes that "might have been"
（追々々記）
この話を知った後ではオリンピックの見方が変わりそうだ。銀メダリストと銅メダリストの表情についつい目がいっちゃいそう。もう中立的な見方はできないだろうな。
